Link This | Email this | Blog This | Comments (0)

Conference Report: NPES Print Outlook
April 10, 2008

It should come as no surprise that the economic news at the NPES Print Outlook last week in New YorkCity was not good. Stories of turmoil in financial markets flood daily newspapers. The U.S. economy is in a recession, said economist Dr. Sung Won Sohn, noting the economy was hit with a triple whammy: a slump in the housing market, tightening credit and rising oil prices. Sohn predicted economic growth in 2008 would be 0.7%.
“Printifying” that assessment (because let’s face it we all want to know what this big picture stuff means to print.) NAPL’s chief economist Andrew Paparozzi said total commercial printing industry sales grew 2.3% during the six months ending in January 2008—the slowest for any six months since March-August 2005—and down significantly from 4.7% one year earlier and the 6.2% peak at midyear 2006. He expects a feeble economy to limit commercial printing industry sales growth to just 1.5% in 2008—and maybe even cause to decline for the first time in five years.
However, Paparozzi pointed out that not everyone is slowing: 44.7% of the NAPL Printing Business Panel (a group of printers continuously tracked by the association) grew faster during the six months ending in January 2008 than they did during the same period a year earlier.
And, he said not everyone is growing at the industry rate (2.3%): Sales were up 11% or more during the six months ending in this past January for the top 20% of the panel and down 7.6% or more for the bottom 20%.
“Our challenge now is not to simply get through the downturn, but also to prepare for the upturn that will follow,” said Paparozzi. Which he said means not waiting for the economy but taking action.
Despite concern about the economy, he said survey of members revealed that 83% plan to increase or maintain the percent of revenue they invest in capital equipment over the next three years. The majority view of respondents: “We have to stay on the technology supersonic highway—it’s moving fast and the longer you wait to get on it the harder it is to catch up.”
During a panel discussion on the outlook for advertising, USB Investment Research analyst Matthieu Copper projected 3.5% growth in North American ad spending. Cooper estimated U.S. ad spending for a 2008 market of $479 billion to break down as follows: television 39.1%; newspapers 25.4%; magazine 10.7%; Internet 10.6%; radio 7.6%; outdoor 6.2%; and cinema 0.4%.

Posted by Lisa Cross on April 10, 2008 | Comments (0)