Graphic Arts Index
Staff -- graphic arts online, 5/1/2001
Consumer spending for the whole range of nondurable goods—including items like books, magazines, and newspapers—increased at an annualized rate of only 1.0% during Q4 2000. This was the weakest quarter for nondurable consumer spending since Q4 1997, and represented a dramatic reduction from the 5.4% average growth recorded during the prior year. For 2000 as a whole, consumer spending for nondurable goods expanded by a healthy 5.0% (after inflation), down a bit from 1999's extraordinary 5.6% gain. Retail sales reports for the first few months of 2001 suggest that nondurable spending should bounce back during Q1 this year to a level more in line with the 3.0% to 3.5% historical average.
But the days of 4.0%-plus annualized growth, recorded in all but three of the past 12 calendar quarters, are clearly behind us for a while.
| Actual Value Q4/99 | Q3/00 | Q4/00 | Annual % Change 2000 | 2001* | 2002* | |
| Consumer Spending Nondurables (1) | 1,818.1 | 1,882.6 | 1,887.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Producer Price Index Book Publishing (2) | 251.6 | 254.7 | 259.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Consumer Price Index Reading Matls (3) | 186.8 | 188.6 | 188.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Price Index Educational Books (3) | 260.2 | 281.0 | 285.1 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| Detailed Price Indexes (2) | 2/00 | 1/01 | 2/01 | 2000 | 2001* | 2002* |
| Elementary Textbooks | 407.3 | 432.9 | 432.9 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 4.2 |
| College Textbooks | 316.8 | 346.5 | 346.5 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 |
| Scientific Professional Books | 218.7 | 221.2 | 222.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Medical Books | 204.4 | 201.1 | 203.4 | -2.8 | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| Religious Books | 198.3 | 200.8 | 200.8 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Mass Market, Trade, Juvenile Books | 152.0 | 155.1 | 153.0 | -1.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| General Reference Books | 189.8 | 191.1 | 193.0 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Encyclopedias | 173.7 | 173.6 | 177.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| (1) Seasonally adjusted annualized in billions of 1996 dollars; U.S. Department of Commerce (2) Index: 12/80=100; U.S. Department of Labor (3) Index; 1982-1984=100; U.S. Department of Labor *=Forecast | ||||||
