Slowdown Evident Despite Erratic January Sales Levels

Sales increased 8.1% in January for the NAPL Printing Business Panel after falling 2.3% in December. Print sales are very erratic from month to month, and so are neither as strong as the January figure suggests nor as weak as the December figure suggests. Average growth over the two months (2.8%) is much more representative of what's been happening than either figure indicates. For the 12 months ending January 31, 2001, sales were up 6.3% for NAPL's panel.

Several key NAPL business indicators verify that the business slowdown that began for printers last fall clearly continued in early 2001. For example, in February, 40.1% of the printers NAPL surveys reported that work-on-hand (work-in-progress and order backlog) was decreasing while just 11.5% said that it was increasing; 54.3% reported business was slowing down while just 23.9% reported it picking up; and a record-high 44.3% reported pre-tax profitability was decreasing while a record-low 17.7% cited increasing levels.

Moreover, although a 71.0% majority of printers surveyed plan to hold production employment steady over the next three months, the percent planning to trim staff continues to creep up (to 19.3% from 7.9% last summer) and the percent planning to add staff continues to slip (to 9.9% from 20.4% last August).

Printer's Pulse data is based on input from approximately 520 commercial printers on the NAPL Select Business Panel, and compiled by the Printing Economic Research Center, National Association for Printing Leadership. Respondents are selected to be geographically representative of the industry, and encompass all sizes, product categories, and processes.

Questions about Printer's Pulse can be directed to NAPL chief economist Andrew Paparozzi toll-free, at 1-800-642-NAPL (in Canada, telephone 1-800-336-2751). Survey findings are covered more extensively in NAPL's quarterly Printing Business Report; to order a subscription, contact NAPL Customer Service, 75 W. Century Rd., Paramus, N.J. 07652.