2000 Economic Growth Best Since Mid-1980s

By any measure, last year was extraordinary for the U.S. economy. On an annual average basis, 2000 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 5.0% greater than during 1999—the strongest expansion for the American economy since 1984. But the final quarter trend was unsettling, with the October-through-December annualized increase of 1.1% representing the smallest quarterly gain recorded since the second quarter of 1995.

We're still lacking solid evidence that the U.S. economy is falling into recession (defined by most as a period of two successive quarters of contraction in the nation's GDP). A good case can be made that the manufacturing sector has itself been in recession since the late summer or early fall of last year. But even if we have a flat-to-negative first quarter of this year, the aggressive action on the part of the Fed during January to lower short-term interest rates should help us to skirt (just barely) a general economic recession again during 2001.

Even so, the dangers to the U.S. economy are greater this year than they've been at any time during the past decade, making us increasingly vulnerable to international external shocks from Opec and unstable political situations. But chances are that we'll get through this and see GDP expand once again this year.

This material is specially compiled for Graphic Arts Monthly by Delano Data Insights, which provides economic analysis and forecasts via newsletters and reports covering a variety of industry sectors. For more information, contact Daryl Delano, 30 Flintlocke Drive, Plymouth, Mass. 02360, telephone (508) 746-7180.