NOTEBOOK: Topping Planning Agendas? Media Shifts, Technology, Recession

Tightening supplies and growing demand have been driving up prices on aluminum plates, virgin and recycled papers, inks, energy and petroleum-based materials. But there will be no foreseeable shortages in advice and wisdom from consultants for every area of your business. While they may do a good job assessing your operational shortcomings and opportunities for business improvement, few will be able to predict the future with any certitude. That's where editors come in handy.

Media shifts can be expected to receive continuous, perhaps endless play in (what else) the media. After all, the media is loaded with media mavens who have a vested interest in whether and where they will be working next year. But that media platform shifting stuff is way overblown.

As the next generation takes over, they will re-adopt print. They'll just do it differently. And it will take them a little bit of time to figure it out. After the coolness of flipping through photos on the back of cameras and laptops wears off, they will want to place a photo album on the coffee table for everyone to see. Digitally printed through online agencies, perhaps. But printed and bound for eternity nonetheless.

We also offer in evidence the Nov. 8 patent award by Google for selecting and organizing magazine ads based on reader interests and proclivities. Sure, those preferences are established online. But the magazine, in Google's world view, will be printed. The search behemoth has for the past year been selling print ads in 450 newspapers.

Another case of print rediscovery is seen in the trajectory of 8020 Publishing (JPEG and Everywhere magazines) with capital from CNet.com founder Halsey Minor.

“I spent my time at CNet talking about how print was going to be challenged by the Internet and specifically how we were going to make magazines go away,” Minor told the New York Times. His epiphany came after a few years, when he realized he was still reading more than 100 magazines a month. Besides, he says, “The images are better.”

In the economic arena, we are seeing a slowdown. From reports on subprime mortgage matters, I deduce that barring massive federal intervention, next year will see escalating repossessions as loan rates balloon, sapping consumer spending and derailing the economy.

Investment vehicles built around repackaged subprime mortgage loans have infiltrated capital markets all over the globe. Such forces caused Montreal giant Quebecor World to withdraw a Nov. 20 offering, and its stock took a drubbing. Though the underlying strength of most businesses is solid, a liquidity freeze can slow the wheels of commerce quicker than a lack of grease will cause a bearing to seize. And right now it is critical that the print industry be able to avail itself of next- generation technology, especially with many surprises due to appear at drupa. Should capital become tight on a short-term basis, next year might be spent analyzing and planning future investments. Concentrate on optimizing operations and workflow the old fashioned way—with best practices. (See p.32 for more on this.)

The consumer-driven move to sustainable print will grow, steering newspapers, books and magazines—where print is the principle product—but affecting all areas of print. GAM will present results of research into this area March 10-12 in Indianapolis at the National Environmental Health & Safety Conf., operated by PIA/GATF, FTA, GAA, SGIA, NAPIM and NAA. The Sustainable Green Printing Partnership is expected to present results of its efforts with the EPA to establish guidance on what constitutes sustainable print and, later, a list of printers who meet a set of “green print” criteria. We hope to see you there.

bill.esler@reedbusiness.com