Consumers Appeared A Bit More Optimistic

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) improved for the second consecutive month this June, posting a 1.6% increase following declines over most of the past year. But since actual buying plans (versus subjective sentiment) weakened between May and June, a certain amount of ambiguity exists in the survey results.

The "Present Situation" sub-index decreased 3.0% over the month, while "Expectations" (defined as six months into the future) rose an encouraging 7.0% between May and June. The CCIs for eight of the nation's nine geographic regions—with the exception of West North Central—registered improvement between May and June.

The percentage of Conference Board-surveyed nationwide consumers indicating that they planned to buy a home (new or existing) dropped between May and June to 3.4% from the 3.6% level recorded over the previous two months and during June of last year. Prospective home buyers as a percentage of the consumer population had reached a cyclical high of 4.2% this March. An estimated 27% of consumers plan to purchase one or more major appliances over the next six months, ominously the lowest level of the year. Further, 6.7% of consumers indicated during June that they planned to buy a new or used motor vehicle over the coming six months, a sharp decrease from the May record of 9.5%.

Thus, at the same time that consumers are saying that they're growing marginally more confident about their job and income prospects as well as the state of the U.S. economy, their actual buying plans reflect increasing caution about the months immediately ahead.

This material is specially compiled for Graphic Arts Monthly by Delano Data Insights, which provides economic analysis and forecasts via newsletters and reports covering a variety of industry sectors. For more information, contact Daryl Delano, 30 Flintlocke Drive, Plymouth, Mass. 02360, telephone (508) 746-7180.